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Epidemic dynamics of infectious disease in metropolitan area and its optimal intervention strategy
https://ir.soken.ac.jp/records/5533
https://ir.soken.ac.jp/records/553353d3d238-531e-4689-8998-baf15956ee89
| Item type | 会議発表論文 / Conference Paper(1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2017-03-03 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Epidemic dynamics of infectious disease in metropolitan area and its optimal intervention strategy | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Epidemic dynamics of infectious disease in metropolitan area and its optimal intervention strategy | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Infectious disease | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Commuting network | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Basic reproductive ratio | |||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Next generation matrix | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | conference paper | |||||||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||||||
| 著者 |
YASHIMA, Kenta
× YASHIMA, Kenta
× SASAKI, Akira
|
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| 著者注記 | ||||||||||
| Kenta, Yashima : Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai) *(Research Fellow) | ||||||||||
| 著者注記 | ||||||||||
| Akira, Sasaki : Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai) *(Professor) | ||||||||||
| 抄録 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | Identification of high-risk community is essential for a policymaking of efficient and effective disease intervention strategies. Under the limited resources for countermeasures (e.g. stocks of vaccine and anti-viral drugs) and need to minimize the economic effect of quarantine (e.g. shut down of factories and offices), it is inevitable to apply intervention strategies from higher risk areas, in order to prevent a disease invasion and to reduce the prevalence in case of pandemic. In this study, we show that the sensitivity analysis of basic reproductive ratio R.q is useful for determining the degree of risk for each location within a metropolitan area. Here we have used the actual commuter flow of Tokyo metropolitan area as an example (commuting data is acquired from the Urban Transportation Census). The model of contagious disease spread in the Tokyo metropolitan area is formulated as a meta-population model, where each node corresponds to each local station (about 1,500 stations) and recurrent movements of commuters (about 150,000 individuals in census sample) interconnect the nodes. For an infection dynamics we assume influenza like diseases and set epidemiological state of each individual to one of Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered state (SIR model). Using this model we calculate the basic reproductive ratio R0 using the next generation matrix method. By applying a sensitivity analysis to R0 and calculate the effect of changing the susceptible population structure (i.e. corresponding to vaccination and/or isolation), we are able to rank all residential stations and commuting pathways according to its epidemiological risk. From this we compare two strategies: applying countermeasures using this ranking from the top and randomly regardless of the rank. The results show that this epidemiological risk ranking according to the sensitivity analysis is very effective in preventing the spread of infectious disease. | |||||||||
| 論文注記 | ||||||||||
| Available online 5 December 2015. | ||||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
IFAC-PapersOnLine en : IFAC-PapersOnLine 巻 48, 号 18, p. 136-140, 発行日 2015-11 |
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| 雑誌情報 | ||||||||||
| Starting from 2015. ※Open Access in nature – no charge is made to individuals for reading or downloading. ＜IFAC-PapersOnline.net＞ | ||||||||||
| http://www.ifac-control.org/publications/ifac-papersonline.net | ||||||||||
| 雑誌情報 | ||||||||||
| Formerly known as IFAC Proceedings Volumes ＜IFAC Proceedings; ELSEVIER ScienceDirect＞ | ||||||||||
| http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/14746670 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | Elsevier Inc. / New York | |||||||||
| ISSN | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 2405-8963 | |||||||||
| DOI | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2015.11.025 | |||||||||
| 関連名称 | 10.1016/j.ifacol.2015.11.025 ＜ELSEVIER ScienceDirect＞ | |||||||||
| 会議情報 | ||||||||||
| 4th IFAC Conference on Analysis and Control of Chaotic Systems CHAOS 2015 - Tokyo, Japan, 26–28 August 2015 | ||||||||||
| 権利 | ||||||||||
| 権利情報 | © 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. | http://www.ifac-control.org/publications/copyright-conditions | |||||||||
| 関連サイト | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/24058963 | |||||||||
| 関連名称 | IFAC-PapersOnLine Archive ＜ELSEVIER ScienceDirect＞ | |||||||||
| 関連サイト | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ifac-papersonline | |||||||||
| 関連名称 | About IFAC-PapersOnLine ＜ELSEVIER＞ | |||||||||
