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Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.
https://ir.soken.ac.jp/records/5526
https://ir.soken.ac.jp/records/5526aa28aee0-1845-44bf-a25e-50317c0f523e
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2017-02-10 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area. | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area. | |||||
言語 | en | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Cities | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Epidemics | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Humans | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Models.Statistical | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Tokyo | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Transportation <NLM MeSH Terms> | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
著者 |
YASHIMA, Kenta
× YASHIMA, Kenta× SASAKI, Akira |
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著者別名 |
YASHIMA, Kenta
× YASHIMA, Kenta× SASAKI, Akira |
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著者注記 | ||||||
値 | Kenta, Yashima:Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai) *(Research Fellow) | |||||
著者注記 | ||||||
値 | Akira Sasaki:Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems (Sokendai-Hayama), The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai) *(Professor) | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. | |||||
論文注記 | ||||||
表示名 | This article has been corrected. See PLoS One. 2015 July 8; 10(7): e0132238. | |||||
URL | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132238 | |||||
書誌情報 |
PLoS ONE en : PLoS ONE 巻 9, 号 6, p. e98518 (pp13), 発行日 2014-06-06 |
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雑誌情報 | ||||||
値 | Publication Start Year : 2006 | |||||
雑誌情報 | ||||||
値 | Frequency : Monthly | |||||
雑誌情報 | ||||||
値 | A Peer-Reviewed, Open Access Journal, Electronic only | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | Public Library of Science / San Francisco, CA | |||||
Online ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 1932-6203 | |||||
PubMed番号 | ||||||
識別子タイプ | PMID | |||||
関連識別子 | 24905831 | |||||
PMC番号 | ||||||
値 | PMC4048205 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132238 | |||||
関連名称 | 10.1371/journal.pone.0098518 <PLoS ONE Open Access Full Text> | |||||
権利 | ||||||
権利情報 | © 2014 Yashima, Sasaki. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. | http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/licenses-and-copyright | |||||
関連サイト | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4048205/ | |||||
関連名称 | Article <PMC Free Full text> | |||||
関連サイト | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/journals/440/ | |||||
関連名称 | Archive of PLoS ONE <PMC Journal List> | |||||
関連サイト | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/journal-information | |||||
関連名称 | About PLoS ONE <Public Library of Science> |